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Bitcoin recently surged to a new high of $111,800, surpassing its previous all-time high from January 2025. However, the rally was short-lived as prices retraced, suggesting fading bullish momentum. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis sits at $97,100—now a crucial support level for recent buyers.
Key resistance is found at $114,800, marked by the +1 standard deviation band, while elevated downside risk is indicated at $83,200, the -1 standard deviation level. These zones are critical for assessing whether Bitcoin’s momentum will continue or falter.
Long-term holders appear to be taking profits, adding sell pressure, while short-term sentiment is being tested within statistical bands. Glassnode’s data also reveals that the current rally is largely spot-driven, with probable support building around $81,000–$85,000, $93,000–$96,000, and $102,000–$104,000.
Historical accumulation zones—such as $25K–$31K, $38K–$44K, and $60K–$73K—have flipped into distribution zones, adding headwinds to the price. Immediate support lies near $103,700 and $95,600, with key resistance at $114,800. These levels, derived from cost basis quantiles and STH bands, now define Bitcoin’s near-term trading range.
Top buyers from early 2025, many of whom held through Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000, are facing renewed pressure as the asset consolidates. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 1.05% in 24 hours to $104,925, rebounding slightly from a low of $100,377.
With bullish and bearish forces colliding, the coming days may determine whether BTC can reclaim momentum—or slide further into a correction.
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